The impact on international trade across G20 economies varied widely in the first quarter of 2020, with Australia’s exports falling by 3.7 per cent.
Covid-19 containment measures introduced in many countries in March 2020 hit G20 merchandise trade hard in the first quarter of 2020.
According to research by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, exports fell by 4.3 per cent and imports by 3.9 per cent, and now stand at their lowest levels since the second quarter of 2017.
“The impact on international trade across G20 economies varied widely in the first quarter of 2020 due to differences in the rate of the spread of Covid-19, in containment strategies, and in the extent of their exposure to other countries affected by the lockdowns,” OECD said in a statement.
Australia’s exports fell by 3.7 per cent, reflecting reduced demand from Asian partners.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) preliminary figures show that exports fell $4 billion or 12 per cent from the record high figure in March 2020 of $35,797 million.
The value of goods imported fell in April 2020, down 5 per cent on March 2020, due to decreases in imports of petroleum, aircraft, non-monetary gold, and road vehicles.
Industry experts told The Guardian that the recent pandemic could accelerate the unpicking of globalisation after decades of ever closer integration between countries.
“As restrictions are lifted, economies will ultimately recover from the pandemic-induced recession, but it is questionable to assume that everything will go back to the way it was,” Geraldine Sundstrom, Pimco Managing Director, told The Guardian.
“As old inefficiencies are identified and new preferences developed, the changes that the Covid crisis has led to might be more permanent than we think and have more consequential implications.”
According to OECD, France, India, Italy and the United Kingdom, which all introduced nationwide lockdowns in March, saw their exports fall by 7.1 per cent, 9.2 per cent, 4.9 per cent and 7.8 per cent respectively while imports fell by under 10 per cent respectively.
German trade fared slightly better than in other G20 European Union economies, with exports and imports falling by only 3.5 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively.
In China, imports of meat and mineral fuels increased sharply in 2020. However exports dropped by 9.3 per cent and imports by 7.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, while in Japan exports fell 4.0 per cent and imports were down 4.4 per cent.
Trade held up reasonably well in Korea (exports rose by 3.3 per cent while imports contracted 1.2 per cent), although with considerable volatility during the quarter reflecting disruption to Asian supply chains following the initial outbreak of the epidemic in China.
At the same time, Russian and Saudi Arabian exports fell, by 9.9 per cent and 10.2 per cent respectively, following the collapse in oil prices.
In Canada and the United States exports fell by 4.2 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively, but Mexico’s exports saw a slight increase (1.0%).
However in Brazil, which was initially less exposed in the first quarter of 2020 to the Covid-19 outbreak than most other G20 economies, bucked the general trend with exports and imports marginally up by 0.9 per cent and 2.8 per cent.
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