According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), world trade’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic hit a record high in the first quarter of 2021, increasing by 10 per cent year over year and 4 per cent quarter by quarter.
The UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update showed the bounce back was driven by export in East Asian economies.
Countries such as China capitalised on booming global demand for COVID-19 related products thanks to its successful pandemic mitigation.
“Global trade has recorded a faster recovery from the recession caused by the pandemic than in the last two trade recessions,” says UNCTAD economist Alessandro Nicita, who worked on the report.
Alessandro says it took four quarters for world trade to return to pre pandemic-induced recession levels, compared to a nine quarter bounce back from the global financial crisis in 2009.
The value of trade in goods is higher than pre-pandemic levels, however, trade in services remains substantially below averages.
The report shows that China, India and South Africa fared better than other major economies during the first quarter of this year.
China’s exports registered the strongest increase not only from 2020 averages but from pre-pandemic levels.
The update forecasts trade will continue to grow, with increases expected into the second half of 2021.
“Trade growth is expected to remain stronger for East Asia and developed countries, while still lagging for many other countries,” the report says.
Global trade in goods and services is expected to reach $6.6 trillion in this year’s second quarter, up 31 per cent from the lowest point of 2020.
The UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update says the positive outlook is largely dependent on reducing pandemic restrictions, a persisting positive trend in commodity prices, overall restraints from trade protectionist policies, and supportive macroeconomic and fiscal conditions.