The latest edition of the DHL Trade Atlas predicts global trade will grow at a faster pace over the next five years, despite rising uncertainty surrounding trade policies.
According to the report, which covers over 99 per cent of global trade, GDP, and population, international trade is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 3.1 per cent from 2024 to 2029—an improvement over the previous decade.
Trade growth amid uncertainty
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025, which incorporates forecast updates through January 2025, highlights both opportunities and challenges facing global trade. While the report indicates that trade integration remains strong, uncertainty looms due to the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly following Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency. The report notes that if all of Trump’s proposed tariff increases are implemented, global trade growth could slow significantly, but it would still continue to expand.
Asia Leads Global Trade Expansion
Among the standout findings, the report identifies India, Vi
etnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines as countries set to experience the fastest trade growth in both scale and speed between 2024 and 2029. India is projected to contribute 6 per cent of additional global trade, following China (12 per cent) and the US (10 per cent).
On a regional level, South & Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and ASEAN nations are expected to lead trade volume growth with annual rates of 5-6 per cent. However, slower-growing Europe will still account for 30 per cent of global trade expansion, with high-income economies generating 58per cent of overall growth.
Resilience in trade patterns
Despite discussions around nearshoring and reshoring, the report finds that global trade continues to move over longer distances. The average distance for traded goods reached a record 5,000 km in 2024, while intra-regional trade declined to an all-time low of 51 per cent. This shift is attributed to increased trade between North America, Europe, and Asia, reinforcing the continued importance of global supply chains.
China’s role in US trade
One key insight from the report is that while the share of US imports directly from China is declining, overall US reliance on Chinese-made content remains significant. Goods imported from other countries frequently contain Chinese inputs, and there are indications that direct imports from China may be underreported.
Sectoral trends and trade Potential
Manufactured goods remain the dominant driver of global trade, while mineral fuels, electrical machinery, industrial equipment, and pharmaceuticals have seen the largest increases in trade value. The report also highlights that despite decades of globalisation, only 21 per cent of goods and services produced globally are traded internationally, underscoring significant potential for future growth.
A Global Trade System That Endures
While the potential for major US trade policy shifts under a second Trump administration raises concerns, the report suggests that the global trading system is too diversified and resilient to be fundamentally reversed by a single country’s policies. Other nations continue to pursue trade agreements and expansion, reinforcing the interconnected nature of the global economy.
For a full analysis and interactive trade data, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 can be accessed at dhl.com/tradeatlas.
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