2026 will mark a clear divide in supply chain performance, as organisations that invest in adaptability, capability and fit-for-purpose infrastructure pull ahead of those still waiting for stability. Peter Jones, Managing Director, Prological Consulting, explains what leaders need to prioritise now.
Supply chain and logistics professionals continue to navigate shifting trade conditions, uncertain economies, and rapidly evolving consumer demands. Rather than asking when things will return to “normal,” 2026 calls for a new mindset: embracing agility in a world where disruption is constant. After years of instability, next year becomes the transition point – not because challenges will fade, but because businesses will stop waiting for them to.
In 2026, successful supply chain leaders will build resilience and flexibility into their operations rather than constantly readjusting in the hope of a return to stability. This means developing flexible supplier relationships and adaptable supply chain infrastructure, and scenario planning that prepares for multiple possible futures not just one predicted outcome.
It’s not just about new tech
A few years ago, I predicted we’d see a divide between the supply chain haves and have-nots by the end of the decade. This divide is unfolding now. The organisations that were outliers three years ago in their supply chain sophistication are becoming the norm, with the gap between them and everyone else becoming harder to bridge.
Australia Post is a prime example of a company that four years ago, faced well-publicised challenges during peak periods. This year, the organisation handled the surge in demand during Black Friday much more smoothly – a result of focused and sustained investment in automation and internal processes in recent years. Companies with solid supply chains demonstrate much greater agility in ramping up to meet demand spikes. Black Friday and other major peak periods always serve as the ultimate stress test of this, and Australia Post is a great example of a company who has invested not only in the technology, but in all the other elements of their supply chain to make it work.
Leveraging industrial property conditions
After years of sharp cost increases and tight availability, the industrial property market is finally repositioning toward equilibrium. Next year is expected to be the first of two to three years of relative stability in terms of costs and availability.
But there’s another significant shift happening: the growing lean toward bespoke warehouse design over spec-built facilities. This isn’t a complete transformation – spec facilities still have their place – but there’s a shifting bias. Mid-to-large occupiers are increasingly recognising that bespoke design delivers long-term operational benefits that outweigh the short-term convenience and lower upfront costs of moving into a ready-built facility.
Prological’s Pulse Check survey has revealed this trend building over the past two years. When organisations are making significant investments in automation, integrated systems, and operational workflows, it’s beneficial to have a facility designed around those requirements rather than adapting operations to fit an existing building.
For supply chain professionals planning for 2026 and beyond, this means thinking with longer time horizons and being willing to invest in infrastructure that’s tailored to specific operational needs. Again, we are likely to see a greater divide between the companies who are taking this into consideration, and the ones who aren’t.
Building capability, not just capacity
The labour challenges that the industry has experienced aren’t going away. But this year’s Black Friday period showed the companies that struggled most with workforce availability were those relying primarily on scaling up labour to meet demand. Organisations with significant automation and appropriate technology support were far less impacted. They’d built capability into their operations rather than just trying to add capacity through headcount.
Labour is still important for businesses who are wanting to scale up. However, the solution lies in building systems that reduce labour dependency for scalable operations while using skilled workers where they add the most value.
The great divide: be adaptive or be complacent?
The transition year ahead isn’t about radical transformation. It’s about strategic adaptation to a world that’s fundamentally different from the one we knew five years ago, and a world that will continue to surprise us.
Next year will reveal which organisations have adapted to this new operating environment. But the encouraging part is, the divide between those who succeed and those who fail isn’t set in stone. The companies pulling ahead aren’t necessarily the largest or best-resourced – they’re the ones making deliberate choices about where to invest, what type of technology to integrate, how to build capability, and what the best infrastructure decision is for their specific business.
In acknowledging the general destabilisation of the world, we also recognise the adaptability of people. Organisations who are doing the patient, difficult work of setting up the best foundations will soon emerge as the supply chain haves, and those hoping for a return to easier times will be identified as the have nots. If you’re investing so your organisation can not only cope, but thrive with uncertain conditions as they reveal themselves, you’ll be on the winning side.
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