Global trade leaders remain broadly optimistic about growth in 2026, despite rising trade barriers, policy uncertainty and geopolitical volatility, according to new research from DP World.
Findings from the Global Trade Observatory Annual Outlook Report 2026 show that 94 per cent of surveyed executives expect trade growth next year to match or exceed the pace of 2025. The survey, conducted ahead of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, gathered responses from 3,500 senior supply chain and logistics executives across eight industries and 19 countries.
More than half of respondents, 54 per cent, expect trade growth to accelerate in 2026, while 40 per cent believe it will remain steady. This confidence persists despite 53 per cent anticipating high or very high policy uncertainty and 90 per cent expecting trade barriers to rise or remain unchanged. Only a quarter of respondents expect a negative impact on their business, with nearly half anticipating no material effect.
The sentiment contrasts with more cautious macroeconomic forecasts, including projections from the International Monetary Fund that global trade growth by volume could slow to 2.3 per cent in 2026, down from an estimated 3.6 per cent in 2025.
Europe was identified as the region with the strongest trade growth potential in 2026, cited by 22 per cent of respondents, followed by China at 17 per cent, Asia Pacific at 14 per cent and North America at 13 per cent.
The survey also highlights how companies are adapting to sustained volatility. Supplier diversification, higher inventory holdings and friend-shoring are emerging as key strategic responses, alongside greater route flexibility driven by cost pressures, infrastructure quality and customs efficiency.
Customs clearance remains a major friction point, with 60 per cent of executives identifying it as a leading cause of delays and disruption, reinforcing the need for continued investment in logistics hubs, road networks and border processing infrastructure.
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